Value of knowledge and the problem of epistemic luck
Imagine that youâve just spent the last several months reading Don Quixoteâand that youâre all but fifty pages away from finishing. Unfortunately for you, the book was due back before you could finish, and so begrudgingly, you turn it back in, having not known what happens in the end. Riddled with curiosity, you make your best guess about Quixoteâs eventual fate and suppose it is the most likely scenario. Entirely unbeknownst to you, it turns out that you were right; Quixoteâs ultimate destiny was just what you had supposed it would be! What luck! Quite naturally, we would say that (despite how impressed we are that you rightly anticipated Cervantes), when all is said and done, knowing what happens to Don Quixote in the end is surely better than merely believing truly what happens in the endâthe predicament you find yourself in having not actually finished the book. After all, it was just by dumb luck that you guessed the ending rightâa point you could deny only on the pain of some embarrassing claim of clairvoyance. We might put the idea more generally by saying that from a purely cognitive standpoint, it is better to know the truth than to stumble upon it by luck. This general idea betrays
Carter, Joseph Adam
epistemology ; luck
Value of knowledge and the problem of epistemic luck. Imagine that youâve just spent the last several months reading Don Quixoteâand that youâre all but fifty pages away from finishing. Unfortunately for you, the book was due back before you could finish, and so begrudgingly, you turn it back in, having not known what happens in the end. Riddled with curiosity, you make your best guess about Quixoteâs eventual fate and suppose it is the most likely scenario. Entirely unbeknownst to you, it turns out that you were right; Quixoteâs ultimate destiny was just what you had supposed it would be! What luck! Quite naturally, we would say that (despite how impressed we are that you rightly anticipated Cervantes), when all is said and done, knowing what happens to Don Quixote in the end is surely better than merely believing truly what happens in the endâthe predicament you find yourself in having not actually finished the book. After all, it was just by dumb luck that you guessed the ending rightâa point you could deny only on the pain of some embarrassing claim of clairvoyance. We might put the idea more generally by saying that from a purely cognitive standpoint, it is better to know the truth than to stumble upon it by luck. This general idea betrays
value knowledge problem epistemic luck imagine spend read fifty page away finish unfortunately book due back could finish turn back know happens end make best guess eventual fate suppose likely scenario entirely turn right ultimate destiny suppose would luck quite naturally would say despite impress rightly anticipate say know happens end surely well merely believe truly happens end predicament actually finish book luck guess end right point could deny pain claim might put idea generally say purely cognitive standpoint good know truth stumble upon luck general idea